US Job Growth Heavily Driven by Immigrant Workers, Studies Show

WASHINGTON, US: Recent analyses of United States labour data indicate that a significant majority of employment growth over the past several years has been absorbed by immigrant workers, encompassing both legal and undocumented populations. Concurrently, independent economic research demonstrates that heightened immigration enforcement policies negatively impact the broader labour market without necessarily increasing job opportunities for native-born citizens.

The discourse surrounding immigration and employment in the US has intensified, presenting varying perspectives on how foreign-born workers affect native-born employment. Official statements from the US Department of Homeland Security have asserted that stricter enforcement of illegal immigration correlates with increased employment for American-born workers. The department also highlighted the collection of over $130 billion in tariffs and the closure of the de minimis trade loophole as part of broader economic strategies. However, independent economic research presents a more complex picture, suggesting that mass deportation or heightened enforcement may actually shrink the overall workforce and harm native-born workers in specific sectors [3, 4].

According to a US think tank, 88 percent of total employment growth between January 2020 and January 2025 went to immigrants, while U.S.-born employment increased by 645,000. In the most recent year of that period, immigrants accounted for 72 percent of job growth. Conversely, a study by researchers at a US university found that heightened Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity resulted in a 4 percent decline in employment among remaining immigrants due to a chilling effect. The same study noted a 1.3 percent reduction in employment for U.S.-born males with a high school degree or less in regions experiencing enforcement surges.

The research further indicated that for every six male undocumented workers lost, the labour market also loses one male U.S.-born worker. This contraction is particularly evident in sectors heavily reliant on foreign-born labour, such as agriculture, where 17 percent of workers are undocumented, and construction, where the figure stands at 13 percent. When employers cannot find foreign labourers for lower-paying or more dangerous jobs, they are often forced to decrease production, thereby reducing overall job opportunities.

The divergence in these findings highlights the lump of labour fallacy, which is the misconception that there is a fixed number of jobs in the economy. Analysis by a migration policy organisation indicates that immigrants expand the economy by increasing demand for goods and services, thereby creating jobs for both native and foreign workers. Furthermore, demographic data shows that the decline in the native-born share of prime-age workers is primarily driven by a decrease in non-Latino White U.S.-born workers, rather than the displacement of U.S.-born Black workers. In fact, the number of U.S.-born Black prime-age workers increased by 23.5 lakh (2.35 million) between 1990 and 2022, partially compensating for the 1.02 crore (10.22 million) drop in U.S.-born White workers.

As policymakers debate immigration enforcement and labour market dynamics, the economic evidence suggests that relying on immigrant labour complements the native workforce rather than displacing it [3, 5]. Future labour market stability may depend on balancing enforcement actions with the economic realities of sectors heavily reliant on foreign-born workers, ensuring that policy decisions do not inadvertently contract the broader economy.